I’ve been dipping into Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto, the latest book by Stewart Brand, a former colleague from GBN days. Back in January I caught one of his promotional presentations at the ICA in London. He is an inveterate showman and iconoclast (more…)
It is interesting to speculate that the horrendous BP oil mega-spill in the Gulf of Mexico may come to be viewed as the defining moment when Peak (Easy) Oil arrived. Up to now the advent of Peak Oil has been difficult to pinpoint in time because it was a function of many variables in constant dynamic interplay. For instance, as the financial crisis (more…)
A couple of weeks ago I took part in the BBC Radio 4 show Great Lives, in which I talked about the life of Buckminster Fuller. A listener, Ron Bird, wrote in afterwards to say that contrary to general belief and our claims on air, Bucky had not invented the geodesic dome. Here is what he said: (more…)
That hypothetical headline, which almost seemed possible in 2008, could yet lie in the future for reasons that have nothing to do with the financial crisis. An erupting volcano in Iceland has caused the total closure of UK airspace for three days so far, along with other European countries, which is apparently unprecedented since World War II. Here in London today (more…)
It is interesting to trace the connection between Toyota’s recent troubles and faulty strategic self-perception. As a Prius owner myself, I had already discovered the slight electronic glitches on ice and over potholes, but they seemed relatively insignificant and I had shrugged them off (although admittedly my car is the earlier version). (more…)
Looking into the future often seems like watching a shifting reflection in a distorting mirror. In the last year, we have moved from the prospect of worsening global financial meltdown to a recovery that is presenting at least the appearance of normality.
Under the surface things are not so reassuring. It feels uncomfortably as if this part of the world has shot itself resoundingly in both feet (more…)
Earlier this week there were two signals that the oil price is threatening to return to dangerous levels as economic growth begins to pick up. On Monday, the FT reported that forward oil prices are now $20 higher than two years ago, even though spot prices are much lower. And on Tuesday, the Guardian reported allegations by a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency in Paris that the agency has been underplaying the rate of oilfield decline, while overplaying the chance of finding new oil (more…)
Yesterday evening I took part in a wide-ranging discussion in London that included a number of senior civil servants. Although I need to respect the anonymity of the participants, I do have permission to mention one fairly abstract point that caught my interest.
A view was expressed that rising complexity in an instantaneously interconnected and interdependent world has reached the point where governments (more…)
The UK’s celebrated TV illusionist Derren Brown appeared to get the future right on Wednesday this week when he predicted the outcome of the National Lottery on live TV. As this blog is concerned with the future it seems appropriate to comment. Setting aside the temporarily beguiling explanation offered on his Friday night TV show, on this occasion he was given away by a slight error (more…)
Last Monday, Nouriel Roubini, writing in the Financial Times, said there are now three open questions about the economic crisis: when will it end, what shape will it be, and are there risks of relapse? Clearly these are pertinent questions, but they reflect a general tendency for commentary to be framed in terms of a desired return to normal, a restoring of economic growth. The assumption that this is a ‘normal’ crisis (more…)
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