Anticipating future needs


Anticipating the future means not only understanding the pattern and direction of change and its probable outcome, but relating it to the evolutionary potential of the wider system of which it is a part.


 

I have spent roughly half my career doing product design and innovation, and half as a professional futurist. Looking back, I can see that my typical approach to both types of work has been much the same – in the spirit of what visionary engineer Buckminster Fuller called “Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science”. In my case I would simply call it Anticipatory Design.

The value of looking into the future, for most organizations, is not so much to make predictions as to identify in advance the needs that are emerging across the wider system. This is a kind of prediction, but the point is not merely to say what events will happen, but to see what actions and initiatives by the organisation are becoming necessary both for the progress of the organization and for the development of the larger system – or put differently, how can the organization align itself with deep systemic trends? This wider contextual vision leads to inventions and innovations, targeted strategically in terms of the system in question – whether it is a product category or the entire biosphere. This approach avoids the risk of being blindsided by imitative competitive thinking.

Anticipating the future involves not only understanding the pattern and direction of change and its probable outcome, but relating it to the evolutionary potential of the wider system, which includes human cultural evolution. To understand our full evolutionary potential, we need to conceive of the capabilities and initiatives that are becoming both possible and necessary and use this as a guide for the way forward.

Anticipatory design then means developing in concept the technologies and products that will meet the emerging needs and describing them in enough detail to allow entrepreneurs, policymakers, and scientists to implement them. This is a different mentality from trying to pick winners – it is more like investing in critical future infrastructure.

As Buckminster Fuller famously said, humanity now has the means “To make the world work for 100% of humanity in the shortest possible time through spontaneous cooperation without ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone.” In my opinion, the ultimate reason for thinking about the future is to aim for this goal.